research-document MS-BASELINE-2026-E5A7

Preregister the lightweight comparison baseline for the ROS pilot

Mission

Specify the comparison workflow before outcomes are observed, document non-equivalence, and define a decision rule that cannot reward documentation volume by construction.

Completion record

  • Completed: 2026-07-30.
  • Summary: Selected a competent conventional status note as the artifact control and separated artifact efficacy, workflow effectiveness, and whole-ROS portfolio value.
  • Major findings: “No documentation” is a straw baseline; equal word count hides treatment mechanisms and cost; a crossover can be contaminated by learning; the handoff experiment cannot validate the full ROS.
  • Confidence: Medium pending formative plausibility and independent review.
  • Limitations: No real-handoff sample, task preflight, power analysis, or treatment data; the control is designed rather than empirically established.
  • Remaining unknowns: Ecological validity, task matching, author variance, carryover magnitude, reviewer blinding, and project-level counterfactual.
  • Supporting references: EV-BASELINE-2026-2B6D and EV-BASELINE-2026-A4F8.
  • Follow-on research: Preregister the artifact experiment and separately design prospective whole-ROS attribution under MS-ROSATTRIB-2026-31D9.
  • Roadmap impact: The internal baseline dependency is complete. Preregistration becomes the next internally executable synthesis, but recruitment remains externally blocked by safeguards.
  • Other repositories: No comparison data may be imported from another repository without authorization and comparability review.
  • Recommended engineering work: Prepare immutable paired fixtures and a conventional-note prompt only after protocol review; do not build portfolio attribution claims into the evaluator.